Free lesson · Prediction strategies

Complete-set purchases and redemption

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One share of every exhaustive, mutually exclusive outcome pays one collateral unit in total. The price comparison must use all executable asks and redemption costs.

In the binary model, YES pays one when the condition is true and NO pays one otherwise. Buying both creates the same modeled payout in both states.

A protocol may allow merging a full set before resolution, but access, fees, collateral denomination and contract version must be checked. Never apply the one-dollar identity to a collection of unrelated headlines.

Apply it in a strategy

• Audit within-condition set economics with a payoff table, collateral checks and fill limits.
• Record the input timestamp, executable quantity, currency and horizon. Reconcile the result with a cash-flow or state table.
• Stress this failure condition: A missing outcome or inconsistent void rule invalidates the fixed payout; partial fills leave outcome exposure.

Research deliverable

Build and explain a complete-set purchases and redemption worksheet. Audit within-condition set economics with a payoff table, collateral checks and fill limits.

Evidence boundary: Synthetic arithmetic and scenarios illustrate mechanics. They are not historical returns, a paper replication, or evidence of an executable edge. Research sources and their access limitations are recorded at the end of this module.

Research sources, review dates and limitations

# Python 3.10+; standard library unless NumPy is imported below.
# Inputs and outputs use the units defined in this lesson. Synthetic teaching example.
def complete_set(asks,sets,cost):
    if not asks or any(not 0<=a<=1 for a in asks) or min(sets,cost)<0: raise ValueError("Invalid complete-set inputs")
    return sets*(1-sum(asks))-cost

print(complete_set([.47,.50],200,2))