Arbitrage & prediction markets
Check state payoffs, contract logic, calibration, execution and settlement.
Build understanding through notation, hand calculations, Python examples and checks of the assumptions.
Arbitrage: Payoffs, Financing and Execution
Prove the cash flows and test whether capital survives the path.
8 lessons · state payoffs · parity · carry · baskets · FX · capacity
Prediction Markets: Contracts, Probability and Evidence
Read what settles, score what you forecast, and keep price separate from belief.
8 lessons · binary contracts · resolution · probabilities · scores · calibration
Prediction Strategies: Logic, Sizing and Market Making
Move from a forecast to a defensible, fully accounted decision.
8 lessons · complete sets · logical bounds · sizing · quoting · portfolio risk